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Wednesday, September 2, 2009

TN Schools Closing Due To Swine Flu

Didn't hear this on any of our local news of course, but found this morning that schools in Alcoa, TN are being closed through Labor Day due to 30% absenteeism due to swine flu and "other" illnesses (which are probably mis-diagnosed swine flu).

Here's the link from Recombinomics, 02 Sep 2009:

Tennessee School Closings Raise Pandemic Concerns

Mounting illnesses have forced the Alcoa City Schools to close through Labor Day.

The 1,800-student system decided Tuesday to extend the holiday for its elementary school, middle school and high school after the absentee rate hit 30 percent. Normally it's around 5 percent.

According to Director of Schools Tom Shamblin, some of the illnesses are confirmed flu cases. Other illnesses included stomach viruses, fevers and upper respiratory infections. Shamblin said middle schoolers were impacted the most, with a nearly 30% absentee rate.

The above comments describe a large pandemic H1N1 outbreak in schools in Alcoa, TN, which is just south of Knoxville (see zoomed map). Although other schools in the area also have high absenteeism rates (see broader view), they have followed the CDC recommendations on keep schools open. These other schools also cite a wide range of symptoms, as noted above. All of these symptoms have been previously reported for swine flu, and it is likely that the vast majority of these students are H1N1 infected. The number of infected students is much high than confirmed cases, due to limited testing of patients who meet the CDC case definition, as well as the high frequency of infections which not not develop a fever (and therefore do not meet the H1N1 case definition).

The absence of fever has been reported previously in Mexico and Chile, but a fever is included in the CDC case definition, so the symptoms listed for hospitalized H1N1 confirmed cases is 93%, leading many to assume the lack of a fever signals the lack of infection. Consequently, a runny nose is frequently diagnoses as allergies, and gastro-intestinal problems are called "stomach flu", and other flu-like symptoms are called "upper respiratory infections" and in some cases an influenza A positive result is interpreted as seasonal or "normal" flu, even though 99% of influenza A positive patients at this time are swine flu because the traditional flu season has not begun.

Thus, the swine flu cases are easily noticed, even though the diagnosis, as seen above, is incorrect. These mis-diagnosis, especially those which attribute symptoms to allergies, lead to more H1N1 infections because students come to school, and remain in school because they have no fever. Moreover, the lack of testing leads to misconceptions about the H1N1 frequency in the area.

This lack of testing has been prevalent for months, so confirmed cases suggest that H1N1 levels in the region are low, and the explosion of cases creates "sticker shock" for returning students and parents. The high level of infections cited above is not limited to Tennessee. H1N1 is widespread throughout the south because the school year began in early August. However, high levels are being reported elsewhere. Almost 30% of students are also absent in Iowa, were there were large outbreaks last spring and around Marshalltown (see map). However, the limited number of swine flu testing kits shipped by the CDC precluded testing of the hundreds of symptomatic patients at the local clinic. Therefore these patients were not confirmed, even though attending physicians were certain that the patients were H1N1 infected.

1 comment:

C.P. Philbeck said...

Dear Tennessee Preppers , I was watching the news, and saw where some of your students in your area of the state are suspect to swine flu. We have all new technology that eliminates personnel wiping down to disinfect area's. Our systems cover 100 percent of area with an E.P.A. approved disinfectant for this process, and are fully automatic. You can purchase your own machines, and start your hygiene program, for a small investment. Please visit our website: www.germeliminators.com for information on our systems and process. These systems also kill MRSA and other pathogens associated with sports and educational facilities. Keep your facilities germ and disease free for a very low cost.
, Best Regards,
C.P. Philbeck
Germ Eliminators, LLC
Phone: 757-561-5262

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